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As climate change accelerates, the Arctic is transforming faster than anywhere else on Earth. One of the most urgent and under-recognised challenges in this region is the growing impact of marine heatwaves on sea ice. These spikes in ocean temperature disrupt the delicate balance of Arctic ecosystems and sea ice, creating new risks for navigation, safety, and communities.

My new research, supported by the UArctic x Lloyd’s Register Foundation Research Fellowship programme, aims to better understand and forecast these changes, especially as they affect navigational safety.

This research is being conducted in collaboration with the Technical University of Denmark, Lloyd’s Register, and the National Research Council of Canada. It will also strengthen and expand international collaborations with partners in Japan, Norway, and Sweden.

What is a marine heatwave, and why does it matter?

are prolonged periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures. They can persist for days, weeks, or even months, and their frequency and intensity are increasing with climate change.

In the Arctic, they have an outsized effect. Warmer oceans mean thinner and less predictable . This is already reshaping global shipping, as Arctic routes such as the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage open earlier and for longer. But these opportunities come with risk: new hazards, unreliable conditions, and a higher chance of accidents in remote, sensitive areas.

The urgency of the moment and why we should care

According to a recent , the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average. Sea ice is disappearing at record rates, with some projections suggesting ice-free summers by the 2030s, a decade earlier than expected.

These shifts are not just environmental; they have global geopolitical and economic implications. The changing Arctic affects not only Arctic nations but also its closest neighbours, including the UK, as well as regions much farther afield. For example, rising Arctic temperatures and changing ocean circulation patterns can influence weather systems, sea levels, and coastal risks across Europe, North America, and Asia.

The UK Parliament report specifically highlights the potential impacts on national infrastructure, including the need to upgrade flood defences and coastal protections.

The report also points to the growing need for sustainable maritime development, as commercial shipping and tourism increase in the region. It recommends strengthening the International Maritime Organisation’s , and supporting businesses to navigate the Arctic safely and sustainably.

Insights to inform policy and improve safety

In light of these challenges, my Fellowship project will – over the next two years – develop a state-of-the-art forecasting tool to:

• predict the impact of marine heatwaves on sea ice formation and melt;
• combine historical and real-time data (e.g. satellite, reanalysis, and ocean observations);
• use Artificial Intelligence to model complex ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions;
• and deliver actionable information to decision-makers, including shipping companies, emergency planners, and Arctic communities.

The project will help policymakers plan for a changing Arctic, shipping operators reduce risk, researchers refine climate predictions, and indigenous communities and local governments build resilience.

By translating cutting-edge modelling into real-world applications globally, this research will support safer and more sustainable shipping, contribute to international climate adaptation efforts, and enhance international scientific collaboration – helping countries across Europe, North America, and Asia better prepare for the ripple effects of a rapidly warming Arctic.

Looking ahead

The expected outcomes at the end of this research are:

• A forecasting system for sea ice condition during marine heatwaves
• A framework to support safer Arctic navigation
• Scientific insights to inform national and international adaptation strategies
• Contributions to international collaboration in Arctic science and technology

The Arctic is changing fast. Our understanding and our policies need to keep up. With the right tools and shared knowledge, we can make better choices for the Arctic and for ourselves.

If you would like to find out more about this project, you can get in touch at bahareh.kamranzad@strath.ac.uk.